6. Goujon, A. Population and Education Prospects in the Western Mediterranean Region (Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip). Austria: IIASA, 1997: 57pp.

This report studies the demographic and educational features of Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. It provides interesting insights into the demography of these countries, especially with regard to the momentum of population growth and education levels. Assumptions for the population projections are based on the analysis of past and present trends, contraceptive use, marriage and childbearing patterns, mortality, migration, education, and enrollment levels. Based on this analysis, three population projection paths --low, central, and high—were designed and lead to three different population figures for each area in 2044.  The most extreme results in terms of population growth are found in the case of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Even under the low scenario, which combines very rapid fertility and mortality declines and rapid educational improvements, the West Bank and Gaza Strip more than quadruple in population size in the fifty years of the projection period due to the high momentum of past population growth. However, all scenarios show substantial declines in the proportion of people with a low education-- less than a primary education—even under the most pessimistic assumptions.